Tiger Brokers

大行评级丨德银：上调震坤行目标价至4.6美元，维持“买入”，长期增长潜力显著

格隆汇
Mar 30

震坤行2025年四季度业绩超市场预期，德意志银行随即上调公司目标价并维持买入评级。公司Q4收入同比增长7.9%至25.6亿元，超预期3%；经调整净利润1490万元同比扭亏，净利率0.6%超预期20个基点。期内GMV29.18亿同比增8.5%，管理层预计一季度GMV增速将进一步提升至双位数。 客户规模快速扩张，Q4客户数同比增60%至7.38万。各业务线表现亮眼，震坤行平台，大客户和中小客户的GMV在四季度均保持同比增长，其中中小企业GMV同比增20%+；服务中国企业出海业务环比增约50%，履约网络覆盖17国；自有品牌占比持续提升至8.3%，仍处上行通道，长期有望成为利润改善的重要抓手。此外，AI战略落地成效显著，如自研智能体“AI推品大脑”2025年创收超2亿元，部署内部运营体系智能化、自动化，推动客服、采购等效率同比提升约50%。 德银基于公司业绩超预期及增长前景向好，上调2026/2027年营收预测各1%，经调整净利率分别上调70/40个基点，将目标价上调至4.6美元，当前股价3.05美元，对应约51%上行空间。同时大幅上调2026年经调整净利润预测172.6%至1.018亿元，维持买入评级。

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