China Modern Dairy Holdings (SEHK:1117) Valuation After 2025 Earnings And Board Appointment From Mengniu

Simply Wall St.

Mar 31

China Modern Dairy Holdings (SEHK:1117) has drawn fresh attention after releasing its full year 2025 results, reporting lower net losses alongside reduced sales, and reshaping its board and capital ...

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However, a 1...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","BK1553":"奶制品股","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","01117":"现代牧业","BK1212":"农产品"},"translate_title":"中国现代牧业控股（香港联交所：1117）2025年盈利和蒙牛董事会任命后的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01117":0.9,"DCF":1},"content_text":"China Modern Dairy Holdings (SEHK:1117) has drawn fresh attention after releasing its full year 2025 results, reporting lower net losses alongside reduced sales, and reshaping its board and capital structure on the same date. See our latest analysis for China Modern Dairy Holdings. The latest results and board changes have landed after a weak few months for the share price, with a 90 day share price return of negative 10.76% and year to date share price return of negative 12.96%. However, a 1 year total shareholder return of 30.91% suggests sentiment has improved over a longer horizon, even if recent momentum has cooled. If this kind of turnaround story has your attention, it can be helpful to see how other consumer facing names are positioned, starting with 97 top founder-led companies With sales at CN¥12,600.71 million, a net loss of CN¥1,128.63 million, and the share price sitting at HK$1.41 with a large modelled intrinsic discount, is this a genuine value gap or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementDCF suggests a wide valuation gap at current levels Our DCF model estimates a fair value of HK$3.53 per share for China Modern Dairy Holdings, compared with the last close of HK$1.41, implying the shares trade at a 60.1% discount to that modelled value. The SWS DCF model works by projecting the company’s future cash flows and then discounting them back to today using an appropriate rate to account for time and risk. For a business that is currently loss making but expected to grow earnings by 88.97% per year and move into profitability over the next three years, this kind of cash flow based approach places more weight on the later years than current headline earnings. That helps explain why a company with a reported net loss of CN¥1,128.63 million can still carry a DCF value materially above its market price, as the model is reflecting forecasts that point to a transition to profitability and positive returns on equity in the years ahead. It also sits alongside a relatively modest discount of 17.67% to the HK$1.66 analyst price target, which is flagged as being less than 20% above the current share price. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. Result: DCF Fair value of HK$3.53 (UNDERVALUED) Price to sales looks rich versus peers and fair ratio On a P/S basis, China Modern Dairy Holdings trades on 0.8x sales, which screens as expensive compared with both its fair ratio and sector benchmarks at the current HK$1.41 share price. The P/S multiple compares the company’s market value with its revenue, and is often used where earnings are negative or volatile. For China Modern Dairy Holdings, this yardstick matters because the business is still loss making, revenue growth is forecast at 4.7% per year, and earnings forecasts carry a wide range of possible outcomes. Against that backdrop, the shares sit above the estimated fair P/S ratio of 0.7x, suggesting the current market value is richer than the level the fair ratio model points to. The P/S of 0.8x is also above both the Hong Kong Food industry average of 0.7x and the peer group average of 0.6x, which signals the market is pricing the stock at a premium to similar names that the fair ratio framework suggests could compress over time. Explore the SWS fair ratio for China Modern Dairy Holdings Result: Price-to-Sales of 0.8x (OVERVALUED) However, the ongoing net loss of CN¥1,128.63 million and a 5 year total shareholder return decline of 20.76% could still pressure sentiment and challenge any rerating. Find out about the key risks to this China Modern Dairy Holdings narrative. Another way to look at it While the SWS DCF model points to a fair value of HK$3.53 per share and suggests China Modern Dairy Holdings is undervalued at HK$1.41, the richer 0.8x P/S ratio versus a 0.7x fair ratio raises the question of whether the market is already baking in a lot of that improvement story. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 1117 Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out China Modern Dairy Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 244 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps If this combination of positives and challenges leaves you unsure, now may be a good time to review the numbers yourself and evaluate the potential rewards of the thesis, starting with 2 key rewards Looking for more investment ideas? If China Modern Dairy has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, use this momentum to scan for other opportunities before they slip past.  Target potential mispricing by scanning 244 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their financial profile. Prioritise resilience by reviewing 263 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability, balance sheet strength, and earnings consistency. Get ahead of the crowd by checking the screener containing 598 high quality undiscovered gems that still sit off most investors’ radar yet show solid underlying metrics.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}