金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，国内数据支持温和“再通胀”，伊朗战争可能升级的情况下海外市场继续降低风偏，特朗普短期“TACO”的市场公信力降低。国内数据方面，1-2月全国规上工业企业利润同比增长15.2%，量、价、利润率三要素来看量和价的贡献较大。工业企业利润“开门红”反映出当前经济处于外需支撑偏强、内需温和修复、价格逐步回升的阶段，该机构的研究也显示输入性通胀对我国的压力相对有限，经济温和向好的趋势尚未改变，但也要关注外部冲击的风险。海外方面，油价依然是主导，且上行风险并未随着特朗普的阶段性“TACO”而降低；海外在定价通胀和加息的同时，外资研究机构已经上调了经济进入衰退的风险，不确定性和追寻安全资产还是主旋律。
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