金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，中国重汽(03808)下半年业绩超预期，录得营收587.0亿元（同比+27%）及归母净利润35.9亿元（同比+40%），毛利率稳健且期间费用率大幅降至8.4%。全年派息比率56.9%，未来有进一步提升的空间。地缘不确定性催生中东陆路运输替代海运的避险需求，叠加国产重卡性价比优势，成为公司核心增长催化剂。同时，斯太尔代工协议标志着欧洲高端市场战略落地。该机构指，中国重汽正经历从中国周期性机械股向具备全球定价权的跨国商用车龙头的跨越。凭借供应链成本优势与海外市场的战略卡位，公司盈利质量实质性跃升。考虑到中东市占率提升及全球出海加速，上调2026-27年EPS预测23.3%/32.8%，上调目标价至45.8港元，对应2026年13倍市盈率；随着欧洲、拉美等高端市场实现突破，估值中枢有望进一步上移，维持买入评级。
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