招银国际：下调长城汽车(02333)目标价至19港元维持“买入”评级

智通财经

Mar 31

智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，将长城汽车(02333)H股目标价从20港元降至19港元，同时下调A股目标价，二者均维持“买入”评级。

该行维持对长城汽车2026年149万台的总销售预测，但上调魏牌及出口销售预期，预计2026年净利润年增19%至118亿元人民币(下同)。2025年该公司第四季收入同比增16%至692亿元，创历史新高，较该行预期高9%。毛利率按季缩窄1.1个百分点至17.3%，较预期高0.2个百分点。毛利率的超预期表现被销管研费用的增加所抵销。最终，剔除政府补助、增值税返还和俄罗斯报废税返还后的核心净利润为4.07亿元，符合该行预期。

该公司的归元平台支援一车多动力，零件通用率接近85%。凭借新平台带来的成本优化，2026年魏牌的至少四款全新车型在定价上将或具竞争力。该行上调 2026 年魏牌销量预期至20万台，较2025年翻番。除了魏牌，该行预期出口，尤其是坦克品牌出口增长(2026年出口目标为10万台)将提高ASP并支撑毛利率。基于当前地缘政治格局，该行上调2026年出口销售预期至62万台。预计2026年平均售价年增1%至17.1万元，毛利率同比增0.1个百分点至18.1%。

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