【券商聚焦】中国银河：辽宁机制电价政策落地核电板块迎业绩与估值共振机遇

金吾财讯

Mar 31

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，辽宁省发改委发布《关于2026年辽宁省核电机组参与电力市场化交易有关事项的通知》，明确核电参与市场交易后，在市场外建立差价结算的机制，对纳入机制的电量，市场交易均价低于或高于机制电价的部分，由电网企业按规定开展差价结算，差价结算费用暂纳入系统运行费用，由全体工商业用户进行分摊。机制电量比例约为70%，机制电价为原核电核准价，红沿河1-6号机组平均为0.3798元/kwh。辽宁机制电价政策落地后，红沿河核电26年电价预计将显著优于年初市场预期（即26年辽宁年度长协电价，~0.3元/kwh），该机构预计有望带动中国广核的归母净利润较年初预期增厚约7亿元。此外，该机构观测到自2026年2月起，广西电网代购电价中新增核电差价合约费用，2月、3月分别为0.033、0.063元/kwh，由此推测广西或已对核电实施类似辽宁的机制电价政策，期待未来政策在更多省份的落地，助力核电上网电价触底回升。在此基础上，考虑到中国广核26-28年分别将有3、2、1台机组投入商运（含集团待注入机组），中国核电26-28年分别将有3（含漳州2号机组）、4、2台机组投运商运，该机构认为核电板块有望迎来业绩与估值的双升。

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