金吾财讯 | 煤炭股多数受压，中煤能源(01898)跌7.34%，南南资源(01229)跌6.45%，力量发展(01277)跌4.98%，兖矿能源(01171)跌4.95%，中国秦发(00866)跌3.92%，中国神华(01088)跌3.73%，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌3.46%。五位数代码华泰证券表示，高油气价环境下亚洲其他经济体对进口煤炭的需求刚性强于中国，保供压力更大且对高价煤承受能力更强，或挤出中国进口煤供给。我们认为疆煤有望放量补缺，在出疆铁路运输瓶颈下，公铁联运外输成本构成国内煤价成本支撑：我们测算5500卡煤价达到794元/吨时疆煤公铁联运外输具备经济可行性；若要实现大规模放量，或需煤价进一步上行至944元/吨以保障供给侧利润空间。此外，我们认为国内煤和进口煤成本曲线最左侧印尼煤的价格倒挂也将构成一定涨价动能。
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