中金：维持首钢资源(00639)跑赢行业评级上调目标价至3.40港元

智通财经

Mar 30

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持首钢资源(00639)2026e盈利预测基本不变，引入2027e盈利预测10.25亿港元。当前股价对应2026/27e 16.3x/15.6x P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到公司资源开采年限有望长于预期，该行认为煤炭核心资产估值有望提升，上调目标价13%至3.40港元，对应2026/27e 17.7x/16.9x P/E，隐含8%的上行空间。

公司公布2025年业绩，归母净利润同比-58%至6.32亿港元，对应每股盈利0.12港元。2H25归母净利润2.28亿港元，同比/环比-65%/-43%，低于该行预期，主要是公司高硫煤产出偏多、洗出率下滑，导致煤炭售价不及该行预期，成本高于该行预期。受中东局势影响，全球油气价格明显上涨，公司公开表示，基于国内资源评估标准和新的煤炭开采技术，存量煤炭资源的开采年限有望进一步延长。

炼焦煤价格虽尚未直接反映能源供需趋紧，但该行判断柴油等原料的供给趋紧和价格上行或将推升全球炼焦煤的成本曲线，对炼焦煤价格形成有力支撑。该行看好公司炼焦煤售价保持韧性。截至2025年末，公司可动用自由资金约79.95亿港元(vs. 2024年的91.96亿港元)，拟派发末期股息0.06港元/股(中期股息0.06港元/股)，对应2025全年派息比例或达97%。

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