【券商聚焦】交银国际维持比亚迪股份(01211)买入评级 料海外高毛利放量在即

金吾财讯
Mar 31

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指,比亚迪股份(01211)4Q25实现营收2,377.0亿元,归母净利润92.9亿元,受行业竞争影响毛利率短期承压至17.4%,但严格的费用管控确保了盈利底盘稳固。展望未来,中国内地市场竞争持续,但新一代混动技术换代及海外(东南亚/拉美/欧洲)产能爬坡将成为核心利润催化剂。凭借深度垂直整合带来的极致定价权,公司全球化跨越提速。中国内地市场基本盘稳固,但正面对高性价比新势力车型的持续竞争。比亚迪明确向海外增量及高端细分市场聚焦以增厚利润。该机构预计,随着海外高售价、高利润车型的交付占比加速提升,叠加仰望、腾势、方程豹等高端品牌订单能见度改善,海外及高端化的高毛利红利将在2026年报表中得到更充分体现,成为对冲价格竞争风险的支撑。考虑到公司在出海战略落地和高端化进程中的执行力超预期,海外销量占比持续上升有望明显增厚利润,该机构上调公司2026-27年EPS预测7.1%/8.8%。尽管短期竞争加剧带来利润波动,但该机构认为中国内地市场竞争已经计入股价,公司深度垂直整合带来的极致成本定价权与三电核心技术代际领先,构筑了深厚的竞争壁垒。长期来看,公司正处于从本土销量霸主龙头向全球新能源巨头跨越的拐点,海外放量将驱动估值重塑。综合汽车、手机部件、电池等业务贡献,基于SOTP(分类加总)估值法,该机构将目标价上调至138.53港元,维持买入评级。

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