金吾财讯 | 牛津经济研究院全球首席经济学家Ryan Sweet表示，特朗普的最新讲话并未促使该研究院改变其对布伦特原油第二季度均价为每桶113美元的基线预测，也未显著改变风险平衡。特朗普大致重申了战争将在几周内结束的言论，但Sweet表示，军事时间表并非经济时间表。关键风险在于霍尔木兹海峡，而特朗普的讲话对重开该海峡一事缺乏任何明确说明或计划。这会给油价带来上行压力，牛津经济研究院的基本假设是，该海峡在4月底前仍将实际上处于关闭状态，从而切断供应。该海峡关闭的时间越长，战略储备和削减库存的效果就越差，从而推高全球经济的成本。
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