金吾财讯 | 乳制品板块早间涨幅良好，优然牧业(09858)领涨10.05%，现代牧业(01117)涨7.80%，中国圣牧(01432)涨1.47%，中国飞鹤(06186)涨0.29%。华源证券指出，伴随上游牧业公司持续的亏损出清，近年来供给侧亦在持续收缩，2025年下半年奶价基本平稳，预计后续供给侧收缩趋势不改，原奶价格拐点预计将于2026年到来，届时或将大幅提振上游牧业公司业绩表现。华源证券基于对原奶周期拐点与深加工产品国产替代的积极判断，预计头部乳企后续不仅将受益于奶价上行期市场份额的修复，还将通过引领产业升级、切入高毛利深加工产品，提升盈利水平。上游牧场重点推荐优然牧业、中国圣牧，建议关注现代牧业，乳制品企业重点推荐伊利股份，建议关注蒙牛乳业、新乳业。
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