金吾财讯 | IMF周三发布分析报告警示，军费扩张虽短期能刺激经济，但长期将引发财政与债务压力，埋下经济隐患。
报告显示，国防支出增加初期可拉动需求与投资，但后续会被政府举债扩张、债务攀升和财政恶化所抵消。数据显示，军费增长启动三年内，财政赤字占GDP比重恶化约2.6个百分点，公共债务占比上升约7个百分点，战时更是飙升14个百分点。
地缘冲突升级推动多国大幅提高国防预算，IMF基于1946年以来160多国数据研究发现，军费增长周期多超两年，约三分之二靠赤字融资。战时债务激增还会挤压民生项目支出。在全球市场波动、地缘风险持续的背景下，该结论对财政可持续性具有重要警示意义。
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