The Insider Report: The Market's Become Numb - Here's What's Next

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Apr 06

Given what's been going on in the commodity markets, it's worth remembering the old market adage, “The cure for high prices is high prices,” as it captures a core self-correcting mechanism in markets ...

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Once major flashpoints—trade wars, regional conflicts, sanctions regimes, or election uncertainties—become widely anticipated and discussed, traders and algorithms rapidly embed those probabilities into asset prices.In addition to the opportunities in quantum computing, there's another emerging theme within the broader technology sector. I have the ratio between small cap tech s","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"PSCT":"小盘科技股ETF-PowerShares","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BK4504":"桥水持仓","XLY":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR可选消费品","BK4593":"纳斯达克ETF","XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","XLC":"Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund","XLP":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","TECL":"Direxion DailyTechnology Bull 3x","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","XLF":"金融ETF","XLB":"材料ETF"},"translate_title":"内部报告：市场变得麻木——接下来会发生什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f75e8f34c22493235996cd2465cc33","symbols_score_info":{"NDX":1.91,"SMH":1.93,"XLB":1.9,"XLP":1.9,"XLK":1.92,"XLY":1.9,"QQQ":1.91,"XLC":1.9,"IEI":1.89,"XLF":1.9,"PSCT":1.91,"LQD":1.91,"TECL":0.6,"XLE":1.92},"content_text":"Given what's been going on in the commodity markets, it's worth remembering the old market adage, “The cure for high prices is high prices,” as it captures a core self-correcting mechanism in markets and trading.\nWhen prices rise sharply due to strong demand or constrained supply, they act as a powerful signal: producers ramp up output, new competitors enter the market, and traders/investors deploy capital to arbitrage or short the asset, flooding supply.\nAt the same time, buyers will curb consumption, seek substitutes, or delay purchases, further eroding demand. This dual pressure—expanded supply and contracted demand—inevitably drives prices back lower, often without external intervention, but it can take time. The principle explains why prolonged commodity spikes or stock bubbles rarely persist indefinitely in open markets; high prices themselves sow the seeds of their own reversal.\nThe market's response, or lack thereof, to President Trump's speech last week suggests that much of the geopolitical risk may already be priced into the market. Once major flashpoints—trade wars, regional conflicts, sanctions regimes, or election uncertainties—become widely anticipated and discussed, traders and algorithms rapidly embed those probabilities into asset prices.\nEquity valuations have already compressed notably, and we may have even experienced a false-breakdown at the start of last week. We can see how by the time headlines dominate the news cycle, much of the expected downside has already been discounted; what remains unpriced is primarily the unknown magnitude, duration, or second-order consequences of the event.\nWhile the market's \"geopolitical risk gauge\" is not zero, people are already bracing for the worst. Remember, we had a big market drop in 2018 during Trump's first term, and it was a mid-term year. It bottomed on Christmas Eve, or around a market holiday. It's not much different than the current setup we have now.\nWhile there were some notable short-term shifts in the sector leaderboard last week, the big picture remains in dire need of repair. The top-performing sector year-to-date remains energy (XLE) by a wide margin, even with last week's sharp pullback.\nThe inflation trade is still running the tape, with sectors like basic materials (XLB) and consumer staples (XLP) showing relative strength. The most bulls can hope for now is for the rise in these names to pause.\nAll of the growth sectors are still at the bottom of the pack. That includes technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), communications (XLC), and financials (XLF). Last week's pop was a step in the right direction, but I still need to see more to truly give the all clear.\nEditor's Note: Well, well, well – is tech finally back?\nIn addition to the opportunities in quantum computing, there's another emerging theme within the broader technology sector. I have the ratio between small cap tech stocks (PSCT) and large cap tech stocks (XLK) displayed below.\nIn general, small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks for years. The biggest theme in the bull market has been large cap tech, but since October, the mega-cap tech names have underperformed and dragged the broader market down with it.\nThis ratio shows a rounding bottom pattern. The ratio is testing the upper horizontal trendline acting as resistance. If this clears, then a new era of small cap tech leadership may be upon us. This will be home to some tremendous gains.\nWith everything going on, it would be wise to check back in on the most important chart driving this bull market: the ratio between semiconductors (SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). The theme here is artificial intelligence, and chips are leading the way.\nThe ratio maintains a clear uptrend with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. It pulled back hard a couple weeks ago, but formed yet another higher-low, which only serves to reinforce the bull trend in favor of the bulls.\nThe breakout from the wedge pattern at the end of last year tells the real story. Disregard the rest of the noise. As long as this ratio keeps rising, the market is offering gifts in terms of dip-buying opportunities.\nThere's been a lot of talk about market liquidity as of late. Stocks have teetered on the edge of an abyss, but credit spreads never fully blew out – this has helped put a floor in the selloff, and it's also helped it drag on.\nI'm back to looking at the ratio between investment-grade corporate debt (LQD) and 3-7 Year Treasuries (IEI). This ratio has trading within massive saucer formation for years. Saucers are momentum patterns, and typically favor resolutions to the upside in time, but realistically, we're unlikely to see a big break unless the Fed moves sometime soon.\nEver since late-October, this ratio has been steadily drifting lower. But it hasn't collapsed, and this fact alone has prevented stocks from experiencing a sharp decline. If credit spreads blow out, it opens the door for a sharp pullback and reset in stocks. If it starts to climb higher meaningfully again, which cannot be ruled out as a higher-low is in play, then it's very likely the correction is over.\nThe numerous questions facing stocks are also present in crypto, especially Bitcoin. Prices remain in the corrective downtrend that started in the fall, despite attempts to repair the trend in the past couple weeks.\nThere have been a short series of higher-highs and higher-lows, but Bitcoin has largely remained within the rectangle formation shown on the chart above. As a rule, consolidations of the losses are considered to be bearish price action.\nThis leaves the door open for another leg lower down to 53,000-56,000, but in the even prices start to clear the upper trendline of the formation, a test of the 80,000-82,000 could be in play. If that were to clear, we'd have to start considering the possibility of a low being complete.\nLegal Disclosures:\nThis communication is provided for information purposes only. \nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}