安本投资:霍尔木兹海峡通航或使油价回落 但难返冲突前的水平

智通财经
Apr 08

智通财经APP获悉,安本投资多元资产客户专属方案全球副主管Ray Sharma-Ong预计,只要停火协议维持有效,且霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输畅通无阻,油价就会从目前的水平回落。同时该行也表示,油价难以回落到冲突前的水平。

安本指出,实际的物流和运输中断不会在一夜之间消失,而且更高的运输成本、战争风险保险、延误、拥挤、改道效率低、预防性库存以及地缘政治风险溢价等因素,都将使油价在一段时间内保持在之前的水平之上。

他又指出,受油价冲击和避险情绪上升影响最严重的市场,预计将出现最强劲的反弹。亚洲石油进口量较大的股市,尤其是韩国、中国台湾省和日本,可能反弹最快。这些市场更容易受到能源价格波动和全球风险情绪的影响。

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