金吾财讯 | 部分煤炭股逆市下跌，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌8.31%，兖矿能源(01171)跌5.90%，力量发展(01277)跌2.84%，中煤能源(01898)跌2.35%，久泰邦达能源(02798)跌2.08%，中国神华(01088)跌2.06%。大同证券表示，供需方面，供给端国内主产区生产保持稳定，“三西”地区煤矿产能利用率维持在合理水平，国内供应基本平稳；但安全监管常态化对超产行为形成约束，供应端增量空间有限。进口端受国际能源价格高位运行影响，海运费维持相对高位，进口煤与内贸煤价差倒挂现象持续，进口补充作用相对有限，形成“国内稳、海外紧”的供给格局。需求端处于传统淡季转换期，供暖需求逐步回落，电厂日耗从高位有所下降，但非电领域需求保持一定韧性，煤化工行业在油气价格支撑下维持相对稳定开工，整体呈现“淡季特征初显”态势，库存水平处于合理区间。东吴证券表示，本周港口动力煤基本面依旧较弱，供给较为宽松同时下游需求较弱，短期由于库存下降且成本有一定支撑作用，港口煤价震荡运行。长期来看，供暖季结束，气温升高，电力需求走弱，水电进一步恢复，预计煤价震荡运行。
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