金吾财讯 | 铜业股整体强势，中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨12.75%，金浔资源(03636)涨12.66%，五矿资源(01208)涨9.38%，中国黄金国际(02099)涨9.10%，江西铜业股份(00358)涨8.56%，中国有色矿业(01258)涨8.01%。中邮证券表示，铜业有望反弹但高度有限，看空铜铝比。本周沪铜上涨0.33%，跟随黄金出现一定修复。中东对铜供给影响不大，因此油价上行导致的衰退预期使得铜价承压。铜库存本周在旺季出现正常去化，价格下跌情况下，下游拿货较为积极。从供应端看，进口窗口打开，后续海外货源流入预期增强，日内部分进口货源流通，对现货贴水形成持续压制。若冲突长期存在，可能引发恶性供给性通胀，使得衰退预期增强，铜价在这一预期下存在压力。目前铜价低位震荡，需关注冲突情况，若冲突使得铜价跌破9万元/吨，可大胆入场做多铜。
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