Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0309 ET - Oil prices rise but remain below $100 a barrel ahead of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend. "What gets agreed there, specifically whether a workable vessel transit protocol emerges, is the single variable that determines whether this backlog starts to clear," says Emmanuel Belostrino, head of global crude and geopolitical market data at Kpler. In early European trading, Brent crude rises 1% to $96.85 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.8% to $98.65 a barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, while supply disruptions keep markets nervous. An Iranian attack on the East-West Pipeline--currently Saudi Arabia's primary export outlet--lead to a loss of around 700,000 barrels a day in throughput.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0250 ET - The dollar rises slightly as oil prices edge higher on concerns about restricted access through the critical Strait of Hormuz even after the U.S. and Iran agreed a cease-fire. Iran is limiting the number of ships passing through the strait, citing Israel's ongoing attacks in Lebanon. Trump asked Israel to scale back attacks that were threatening the cease-fire. Israel has agreed to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon which are tentatively scheduled for next week. The U.S. and Iran have also planned to meet this weekend for talks. Higher oil prices support the dollar as the U.S. is a net oil exporter. The dollar also benefits from its safe-haven status. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.961. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0201 ET - It is difficult to say whether the U.S. has gained anything from the Middle East war, but its economy is likely to be the least impacted by rising oil and gas prices, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. From a geopolitial perspective, Russia and China are winners of the war, while Iran is likely to get its sanctions removed, says the global economist. The main losers are the Gulf countries who will face an emboldened Iran and their economy has taken a hit, Kumar says. Asia loses on the economic front, given its dependence on oil and gas from the Middle East, while Europe loses on the geopolitical front "as it's becoming clear that the world does not care about the opinion of Europe." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

2143 ET - Rising biodiesel mandates in governments across the world are expected to boost 2026 demand for vegetable oils, particularly palm and soybean, Affin Hwang IB analyst Nadia Aquidah says. Indonesia's planned rollout of its B50 biodiesel mandate, which requires a 50% palm-based blend, could absorb an additional 3.5 million to 4.0 million tons of crude palm oil annually, reinforcing its role as a key swing factor in global markets, she says. The U.S. raises renewable fuel targets, which further supports demand for vegetable oils demand. Affin Hwang IB raises its CPO price assumptions to between 4,450 ringgit and 4,550 ringgit a ton for 2026 from between 4,100 ringgit and 4,250 ringgit a ton. It also raises its rating for the Malaysian plantation sector to overweight from neutral, naming Johor Plantations and TA Ann as top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2142 ET - U.S.-Iran cease-fire optimism is running ahead of oil-market's realities, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. The "cease-fire does not appear to cover Lebanon, and Israel's subsequent strike on Lebanon has raised concerns about the durability of the ceasefire agreement," the senior currency analyst says. Also, "tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, and war-risk insurance premia are likely to stay elevated, even under a ceasefire," Chan says. "The recent bounce in Asia FX appears largely sentiment-driven and vulnerable to reversal, should geopolitical tensions re-escalate or if oil prices stay high for longer," Chan adds. The dollar rises 0.3% 1o 1,478.70 won and gains 0.5% to 32.09 baht, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0801 ET - U.S. alternative-asset managers remain unattractive to AllianceBernstein, despite share-price declines of around 30%-40% in recent months amid concerns over private-credit funds. Portfolio opacity makes it difficult for equity buyers to justify investing in their shares, says head of equities Nelson Yu. While valuations may appear cheap, unclear underlying holdings raise questions about what investors are buying. The sector could also face pressure from exposure to software-as-a-service providers, which face significant challenges from AI disruptions, says Diwakar Vijayvergia, AllianceBernstein's co-head of Asia fixed income. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0751 ET - Oil prices rise in afternoon trading, with the U.S. oil gauge WTI above $99 a barrel as uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations and shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz keep markets on edge. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rises 3.7% to $98.24 a barrel, while WTI gains 5% to $99.20 a barrel. "While the announcement of a U.S.-Iran cease-fire initially triggered a sharp unwind in geopolitical risk premium and long-liquidation from wrong-footed speculators, the market has quickly refocused on the underlying reality: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained, and the global oil system is operating far from normal," analysts at Saxo Bank say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0725 ET - Markets' rethink of risk isn't a surprise, but the continuing volatility across markets should be, BNY's Bob Savage says in a note. "Yesterday and today highlight the mean reversion of trading more than a breakout moment for new trend and risk-taking," the head of markets macro strategy says. The primary concern for the market is the duration of the conflict in the Middle East, he says. "The longer the conflict continues without a return to normal supply chains for energy and other key materials, the worse cost-push inflation will be and the more likely global growth will suffer as demand destruction takes hold." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0516 ET - Oil prices extend gains as traders weigh a fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire ahead of Friday talks and persistent risks around the Strait of Hormuz. In mid-morning European trading, Brent crude for June delivery rises 3.6% to $98.2 a barrel, while WTI futures for May are up 2.7% to $97.94 a barrel. "Day 1 of the cease-fire wasn't a success on many fronts," says Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta Commodities. "Vessel owners will surely be wary of war breaking out again for some time." With a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still unlikely, analysts expect prices to remain elevated as production disruptions and refinery outages will take time to unwind. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0431 ET - The dollar is likely to weaken if President Trump renews his calls for interest rate cuts, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. The oil price shock stemming from the Iran war should gradually feed through into prices, she says. Even if the war ended, energy prices probably won't return to pre-conflict levels given disruptions to trade routes and production facilities. Nevertheless, Trump could resume pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates as he might seek to boost his poll ratings ahead of midterm elections, she says. "If Trump turns his attention back to this front and the conflict with the Fed flares up again, the dollar could suffer accordingly." The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 99.087. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0424 ET - The National Bank of Poland could leave interest rates unchanged and sound cautious about raising rates in a decision later but the Polish zloty remains driven by geopolitical headlines, ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. If risk sentiment recovers and the U.S.-Iran cease-fire holds, the zloty has further potential to erase previous losses, he writes. However, it will likely take some time before the euro reaches pre-conflict levels below 4.220 zloty, he says. The euro rises 0.2% to 4.2604 zloty after reaching a four-week low of 4.2440 zloty Wednesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0342 ET - European energy stocks rise in opening trade, recouping some of the prior session's losses, as oil climbs back toward the $100-a-barrel level. The price rise follows fresh strikes on Lebanon by Israel and reports of low traffic levels through the Strait of Hormuz. Leading the gains are BP, Galp Energia and Repsol--up 1.7%, 1.6% and 1%, respectively. Shell and Eni shares are up 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Brent crude for June delivery is up 2.2% to $96.86 a barrel, while WTI futures for May gain 3.3% to $97.51 a barrel. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 10, 2026 03:10 ET (07:10 GMT)

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