【券商聚焦】华泰证券:等待战争疑虑进一步缓解,铝价的向上弹性或实现进一步释放

金吾财讯
Apr 10

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,近期中东局势持续升级,多家铝厂遭受直接冲击。根据WoodMac,阿联酋EGA旗下Al Taweelah铝厂遭伊朗导弹及无人机袭击,电力设施受损严重,电解槽被迫紧急停槽,已导致该产能处于停产状态,涉及总产能约160万吨/年;巴林铝业(Alba)此前因氧化铝短缺已宣布减产19%,3月28日铝厂再遭袭击后设施受到重大损毁,根据WoodMac预计,目前运行产能已降至约30%,涉及受影响产能约112万吨;卡塔尔铝业(Qatalum)因LNG断供目前运行产能约为正常水平的60%。本轮事件新增停减产产能约241.6万吨,叠加此前巴林铝业和卡塔尔铝业已公告的受影响产能,累计受扰动产能或超300万吨。该机构测算2026/2027年全球原铝供需缺口分别为-94.9/-38.9万吨,供需缺口依然较大,且电解槽设备特性导致产量的下降已成为刚性变化,战争迅速结束情况下供应无法短期恢复。需求方面,市场此前对于原油价格维持高位导致的需求预期偏悲观,因此该机构认为等待战争疑虑进一步缓解,铝价的向上弹性或实现进一步释放。标的方面,建议重点关注具备海外电解铝产能布局的相关公司,有望更直接受益于本轮海外铝价的大幅上涨。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10