The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0829 GMT - China's policy easing is still likely but may be delayed as uncertainty remains high, UOB's Ho Woei Chen says. UOB maintains its call for a 10bp policy-rate cut and sees scope for a 50bp reserve requirement ratio cut, especially if growth risks rise. "Having said that, we are pushing back our call to 3Q26 from 2Q26 due to the uncertainties while targeted monetary easing and support measures may play a bigger role in the near-term," the economist says. The PBOC remains on course to keep policy "moderately loose," she says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0828 GMT - Persistently higher oil prices are likely lift China's consumer inflation, UOB's Ho Woei Chen says in a research note. The economist says the consumer-price impact from Middle East supply disruption was still contained in March, but sees upward pressure building in the coming weeks, depending on the Strait of Hormuz's oil-flow normalization. UOB raises its 2026 headline CPI forecasts for China to 1.3% from 0.9% and PPI forecast to 1.2% from 0.2%. This marks a turnaround after three years of deflation, the economist says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0823 GMT - The euro could outperform low-yielding currencies, including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, on expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. While markets have scaled back bets for a rate rise on April 30 since the U.S. and Iran agreed a cease-fire, 58 basis points of rises are priced in by year-end, LSEG data show. "What matters most at this stage is the stickiness of tightening expectations," Pesole says. Rate-rise pricing should remain above 50 basis points even if oil prices ease further, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1685. It drops 0.2% to 0.9230 Swiss francs but rises 0.1% to 186.12 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0812 GMT - Oil-driven cost pressure is set to lift China's producer inflation, Barclays economists say in a research note. Barclays estimates each 10% increase in oil prices would add about 0.3-0.4 percentage point to producer inflation, but only about 0.1 percentage point to consumer inflation. Producer prices rose 0.5% on year in March, turning positive for the first time since late 2022. The rebound was led by upstream sectors such as raw materials and mining, with pass-through to downstream prices still weak, Barclays says. The impact on consumer inflation is less as soft domestic demand remains muted, the bank says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0753 GMT - Modest policy easing in China remains likely even if oil prices stay elevated, according to Barclays economists. Domestic demand weakness continues to limit broad inflationary pressures, they say. The bank expects headline consumer inflation to stay around 1% in 2026 even if oil remains near $100 a barrel, below the official inflation target of around 2%. Oil shock constraints on policy are manageable and continues to expect a 10bp policy-rate cut and a 50bp reserve requirement ratio cut in the 1H, Barclays says.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0742 GMT - Central banks across Asia are likely to adopt a cautious bias amid rising stagflation risks, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. "Monetary policy is not the right recipe for supply-side shocks in our view." Asian policymakers are likely to manage the impact mainly through fiscal subsidies to help households maintain their purchasing power. However, central banks would have to step in and take action if inflation worsens. ANZ expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten policy next week, as it would likely be more concerned about inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict than the impact on growth. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0736 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall slightly as markets stabilize ahead of discussions between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan this weekend aimed at resolving the Middle East conflict. "Investors appear to be looking ahead with cautious optimism--placing their bets on productive diplomatic talks expected to unfold in Pakistan this weekend," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1 basis point to last trade at 4.794%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - The Bank of Korea may see risks tilted toward renewed price pressures despite its cautious policy stance, Moody's Analytics economist Dave Chia says. "For now, policy remains firmly on hold," Chia writes in a note. "But the next move, if any, is increasingly skewed toward tightening rather than easing." Rising oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict have revived inflation risks in South Korea, with higher fuel costs likely to lift headline inflation in the coming months, he notes. The weaker South Korean currency is also a key policy concern, with the dollar near 1,500 won--a level viewed as vulnerable rather than comfortable, he adds. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0730 GMT - Bitcoin falls, reversing much of its overnight gains amid uncertainty ahead of planned weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively at a standstill despite the U.S. and Iran agreeing a cease-fire with Iran limiting the number of ships passing through the critical energy chokepoint. Iran has cited Israel's ongoing strikes in Lebanon, prompting Trump to ask Israel to scale back attacks. Israel has agreed to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon which are tentatively scheduled for next week. Bitcoin falls 0.8% to $71,820 after reaching a three-week high of $73,067 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0709 GMT - Oil prices rise but remain below $100 a barrel ahead of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend. "What gets agreed there, specifically whether a workable vessel transit protocol emerges, is the single variable that determines whether this backlog starts to clear," says Emmanuel Belostrino, head of global crude and geopolitical market data at Kpler. In early European trading, Brent crude rises 1% to $96.85 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.8% to $98.65 a barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, while supply disruptions keep markets nervous. An Iranian attack on the East-West Pipeline--currently Saudi Arabia's primary export outlet--lead to a loss of around 700,000 barrels a day in throughput.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge lower in opening trade, with markets tentatively calm amid the Middle East cease-fire. "Cautious optimism may prevail today as markets are contemplating prospects for successful ceasefire negotiations over the weekend," Commerzbank's Hauke Siemssens says in a note. Issuance will come from Italy, while France and Spain will announce details of their auctions for next Thursday. The 10-year German Bund yield edges 1 basis point lower to 3.009%, while the 10-year French OAT yield is down 2.5bps at 3.643%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0650 GMT - The dollar rises slightly as oil prices edge higher on concerns about restricted access through the critical Strait of Hormuz even after the U.S. and Iran agreed a cease-fire. Iran is limiting the number of ships passing through the strait, citing Israel's ongoing attacks in Lebanon. Trump asked Israel to scale back attacks that were threatening the cease-fire. Israel has agreed to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon which are tentatively scheduled for next week. The U.S. and Iran have also planned to meet this weekend for talks. Higher oil prices support the dollar as the U.S. is a net oil exporter. The dollar also benefits from its safe-haven status. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.961. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 10, 2026 04:29 ET (08:29 GMT)

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