4月9日,高盛交易部门指出,随着美国总统特朗普宣布与伊朗达成暂时停火协议,避险基金经理人于周二(7日)晚间显著加速回补大盘指数与ETF等宏观产品的空单,这波平仓规模已逼近疫情初期水平。高盛美股执行服务主管兼合伙人John Flood在报告中表示,这正是市场所期盼的“退场机制”,且多数投资人普遍认为这意味着冲突已步入尾声。
展望后市,高盛交易部预期先前受益于战争的能源、大宗化学品与国防股将因基金获利了结而面临短期回调;反之,先前被大举放空的非必需消费品,特别是房地产相关类股,则可望迎来最持久的回补力道。随着财报季展开,市场将在未来几天进入“进攻阶段”,预期仅限做多的投资人会将资金重新轮动至战争前的热门类股,如存储器与半导体。此外,美伊战争以来一直袖手旁观的资产管理公司与主权财富基金,极可能受到激励而重返市场采取攻势。
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