即便中东局势缓和带来乐观情绪，印度股市的任何反弹都难以持续，因境外投资者仍在不断减持该市场头寸。

　　受全球股市普涨带动，印度主要股指周三创下2025年5月以来最佳涨幅。但交易所公布的初步数据显示，外资仍在抛售印度本土股票，其连续抛售时长已刷新纪录。与之形成对比的是，境外投资者在韩国股市等均为净买入。

　　市场对印度企业盈利增速放缓的担忧，令其股市前景依旧不明朗——当前印度股市估值已超过18倍远期市盈率，这一水平缺乏基本面支撑。杰富瑞预计，剔除大宗商品类企业后，印度企业利润增速仅为10%。

　　作为股指利润的重要贡献者，软件服务行业因企业越来越多地采用人工智能智能体而遭受净损失。与此同时，印度银行业在外汇押注上面临潜在亏损，而消费板块将首当其冲承受美伊冲突引发的能源冲击。

　　本财年印度经济预计仍将实现6.9%的增速，表现优于多数经济体，但投资者担忧的是，企业利润恐难以实现翻倍增长。在此背景下，外资势必会继续借助每一轮反弹进行减持。

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责任编辑：王永生

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