金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，因上游原油及石化原料等成本上行，26Q1大宗化工品价格中枢亦整体上行，但地缘冲突导致全球需求下滑担忧及成本高价影响下，部分子行业（如涤纶、塑料制品）产业链补库动力略显不足，该机构预计需求和成本双重挤压下，相关企业盈利仍处于磨底期，而聚氨酯、瓶片等格局较好、占下游成本相对较低或需求相对刚性的子行业顺价能力或较强，相关企业盈利或逐步进入上行周期。同时，由于中东地区油气断供风险引发下游烯烃、甲醇、尿素、硫磺等产品持续提价，国内煤化工、气体化工等相关企业预计将充分受益于原料供应稳定性和成本端优势。中期而言，若后续伊朗局势不确定性降低，叠加下游库存已去化至相对低位，全球化工品补库需求有望带动行业景气回暖。
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