金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，26年3月末CCPI-原料价差为3131，美以伊局势致化工品普涨，受益于中国煤头替代路线，我国化工品整体价差得到明显改善。其中3月蛋氨酸、国际成品油、国际甲醇、丁二烯等产品因海外供给缺口较大价格及价差均显著扩大。该机构认为，若后续中东地缘局势企稳后，中国与全球有望迎来新一轮化工品补库行情，带动需求增长；而供给端自2025年以来行业资本开支增速显著下降，叠加“反内卷”、“碳双控”等有望助力供给端调整及落后产能出清。此外，自24年以来欧洲与日韩等地区整体处于产能退出周期，受本轮全球能源供应危机催化，海外落后产能出清有望加速。供需驱动下，该机构认为国内企业依托供应链稳定性等优势有望持续提升全球份额并迎来景气周期。
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