机构:布伦特原油飙升反映市场重定价更为持久的霍尔木兹海峡冲击

环球市场播报
Apr 13

  VanEck Associates Corp.表示,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普下令封锁霍尔木兹海峡后,布伦特原油价格的飙升表明,随着市场对美伊停火的疑虑加深,投资者正在越来越多地把更持久的油价冲击计入价格之中。

  VanEck跨资产策略师Anna Wu表示,市场开始愈发相信,油价冲击不再只是短暂的扰动,而是一个中长期情景——油价可能“在更长时间内维持在更高水平”。油价此番回升看起来更像是技术性反弹——此前在停火消息宣布当天,油价曾大跌17%。在这样的背景下,随着市场适应新的价格区间,股票的表现可能较为抗跌。这种动态类似投资者此前应对关税风险的方式:先出现一次集中“重新定价”,随后在最坏情形被吸收后,风险因素逐渐淡出成为“背景噪音”。

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