Gold and silver send bearish signals that the bull market may be on hold for months to come – Heraeus

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Apr 13

(Kitco News) – Both gold and silver sent worrying bearish signals in March, suggesting that the resumption of the bull market for precious metals may still be six months away, while central banks ...

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March, suggesting that the resumption of the bull market for precious metals may still be six months away, while central banks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-04-13/gold-and-silver-send-bearish-signals-bull-market-may-be-hold-months-come\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"kitco_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold and silver send bearish signals that the bull market may be on hold for months to come – Heraeus</title>\n<style 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the bull market for precious metals may still be six months away, while central banks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-04-13/gold-and-silver-send-bearish-signals-bull-market-may-be-hold-months-come\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IAUM","symbol_name":"ISHARES GOLD TRUST 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Heraeus.In their latest update, the analysts said the Federal Reserve is in a tough spot on interest rate policy.“With prices set to continue to rise and employment stagnant, the Fed will have to balance the two parts of its dual mandate: to support the goals of maximum employment and stable prices,” they wrote. “Even with a ceasefire in the Middle East, inflation is likely to be higher for a period of time and this would suggest that the Fed should hold rates steady or even raise them. Non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, beating expectations by 118,000. However, revisions have been to the downside in 11 of the last 12 reported months from January 2025, with the average revision being -51,000 (source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics).”“The total number of non-farm employees has remained relatively stagnant since the end of 2024 following the recovery from Covid,” they added. “If higher costs lead to slower economic growth, that would be negative for employment and a weaker job market could cause the Fed to reduce the Federal Funds Rate to boost the economy and jobs.”The analysts noted that the probability of one to two interest rate cuts in 2026 increased to 27.3% on 9 April, up from 14.1% prior to the April 7 ceasefire announcement.“The initial reaction to the news of the ceasefire was for everything that had been sold off to rally and everything that had rallied (energy, US dollar) to drop,” they said. “This lifted precious metal prices on Wednesday, helping them to end the week higher.”The analysts also noted that central banks have remained gold buyers on balance, with a net 27 tonnes of gold purchases in February, up from January’s 5 tonne total.“The National Bank of Poland added 20.2 tonnes of gold to its reserves in February, its largest addition since February 2025 (29 t),” they wrote. “Uzbekistan (7.8 t) and Kazakhstan (7.7 t) also added to their reserves in February. The major sellers were Turkey (-8.1 t) and Russia (-6.2 t). This continues the trend of central bank accumulation seen since the global financial crisis. Last year, central banks added 863 tonnes to their reserves.”Turning to the price action, Heraeus said gold delivered a bearish signal last month.“A bearish engulfing pattern has formed on the monthly candle price chart, with the price in March opening higher and closing lower than the preceding month,” they pointed out. “This coincides with the stalling of the bull market in late January and the beginning of the US-Israeli military operation in Iran.”The analysts said that the last bearish engulfing pattern back in April of 2022 was followed by six consecutive months of losses as the gold price fell from $2,000 to $1,600 per ounce. “Despite this price action, the current correction could be absorbed by a continuation of the ongoing bull market as more inflation and low real rates prop up demand,” they wrote. “However, if the uptrend over the last week reverses, the next level of price support could be in the region of the March lows at around $4,100/oz.”Gold is trading near session highs on Monday morning as it continues to challenge resistance near $4,800 per ounce.Spot gold last traded at $4,767.01 per ounce for a gain of 0.47% on the session.Turning to silver, Heraeus analysts said silver bar and coin sales pulled back last month.“The Perth Mint’s silver bar and coin sales were 976,450 oz in March, a sharp drop from almost 2 moz in February which was the largest monthly sales in more than two years,” they wrote. “Investors took advantage of the sharp sell-off that ended in early February to increase their exposure. With total sales of over 4.6 moz in the first quarter, 2026 has started out much more strongly than 2025.”The U.S. Mint’s sales of silver American Eagle coins also dipped from 1.7 moz in February to a “still a respectable” 1.6 moz in March. “Sales in the first three months totalled more than 8.1 moz compared to 5.3 moz in the same period last year, although 2025 had the lowest annual total since 2007,” they said.As for the price action, the analysts noted a bearish engulfing candle pattern similar to gold’s on the monthly price chart. “The price in March opened higher than the price closed at the end of February, but the price then fell and ended March below the price that it was at the start of February,” they said. “As the pattern occurs on a monthly chart, the implication is that there could be several months of consolidation and sideways-to-lower price action before the bull market might resume.”Silver prices have traded in a very narrow range since spiking higher early in the Asian session overnight.Spot silver last traded at $74.212 per ounce for a gain of 2.26% on the daily chart.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}