金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，白酒行业当前正处于深度调整与去库周期的尾声，行业已从过去的粗放式总量增长全面迈入存量竞争新阶段。短期看，批价企稳、库存去化、渠道情绪修复是行业走出调整期的核心观察变量。中长期看，行业未来增长逻辑将由过去的“量价扩张”转向“量稳、价升、头部集中”，具备强品牌力与渠道力的龙头酒企有望率先复苏，穿越周期。当前行业积极因素正在酝酿，行业加速出清，板块处于低位，具备布局价值。该机构与市场观点不同之处在于，市场对白酒板块的担忧集中在弱基本面、无右侧信号、投资维度缺乏吸引力等三方面，该机构认为行业宴席与自饮需求韧性突出，商务需求未来弹性仍大；供给端龙头主动修复，基本面“不再边际恶化”的概率较大。投资范式端，在低利率环境下估值与基本面的错配提供布局空间。该机构指，板块投资逻辑正从“量价规模”转向“稀缺性+现金流确定性”，当前龙头酒企估值或已处于底部区间。建议围绕三条主线布局：1）相对确定性龙头；2）出清逻辑清晰、渠道执行力强的管理驱动型公司；3）前期深度调整、具备改革催化的底部反转标的。
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