金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，根据Wind，4月14日全国生猪均价8.7元/公斤，跌破2008年以来最低水平，对应行业自繁自养头均亏损约450元/头，已超过上一轮单周最深亏损。3月以来行业陷入深度现金流亏损的背景下，能繁母猪再度开启去化，且根据产能及效率指标推算，26Q2-Q3行业仔猪供给依旧维持高位，行业维持现金流的亏损与消耗是大概率事件，非线性的产能去化随时有可能出现，对板块形成强催化，重申推荐生猪养殖板块。该机构提到，较21、23年产能去化阶段不同的是：（1）反内卷背景下，集团企业亏损期逆势扩产、经营困难时获得融资的难度加大，劣质产能的出清更加通畅；（2）23-24年的去化与反转伴随的是饲料原材料下行，体重增加对产能去化形成抵消，而当前截然相反，原材料26年后处于上行区间，尤其是本身处于去库存周期的玉米，短期加深亏损和去化幅度，也有助于为后续猪价反转阶段提前释放库存压力；（3）21-24年行业PSY由18.6提升至24.0，效率提升对产能去化形成对冲，但23-25年行业前10%猪场PSY开始在30-31波动，行业效率方差缩小，效率提升速度或有所放缓，对去化的对冲已在这一轮削弱。
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