金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，复盘1Q26 AI大模型行业最新进展，该机构观察到：1）行业竞争加剧、模型迭代速度持续加速，中美语言模型差距有所收窄，行业竞争的重点从基础模型能力进一步向推理效率、智能体能力等方向衍生。2）国内模型厂商目前估值驱动关键已从单纯 “模型能力排名”演进为关注“收入兑现速度与路径可持续性”。该机构对国产AI原生板块维持积极判断，但建议投资者重点关注各家公司2026-2030年收入增长趋势与持续性，这将成为决定当前估值能否被基本面消化的关键因素。3）AI商业化方面，该机构持续看好AI编程、企业智能体与AI创意生成领域，三条赛道目前已探索出较为清晰的商业模式并形成规模化收入。股票推荐维度，中国互联网板块中该机构推荐具备丰富应用场景且云业务有望受益于token需求指数级增长的阿里巴巴、腾讯。美国互联网软件板块推荐谷歌、微软和Meta。
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