金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，预计京东(09618)1Q26实现总收入人民币3,106亿元，同比增长3.2%，与彭博一致预期相符；non-GAAP净利润为人民币59亿元，同比下降54%，主要受外卖业务投入及国际扩张影响，但该机构的non-GAAP净利润预测高于市场一致预期的人民币51亿元，主因外卖业务环比减亏或好于预期，以及核心京东零售业务在运营效率提升推动下表现强于预期。该机构预计1Q26京东零售营业利润同比增长3%至人民币132亿元，外卖业务运营亏损收窄至人民币70亿元（该机构估算4Q25亏损为人民币105亿元）。
该机构基本维持2026年营收预测不变，同时将non-GAAP净利润预测上调4%，以反映在外卖行业竞争放缓背景下，外卖业务减亏进度好于此前预期。该机构仍预计2026年核心京东零售业务营收及营业利润均同比增长5%。该机构认为，集团层面盈利增长及股东回报的可见度提升，仍是股价核心驱动因素。维持“买入”评级，基于DCF的目标价维持在47.5美元不变。
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