瑞银表示，尽管短期收益率受中东冲突影响而上升，但美联储和英国央行下一步行动仍可能是降息。

　　瑞银策略师Mustafa Oguz Caylan在一份报告中写道：“我们认为，美联储和英国央行今年更可能推迟降息至中性利率水平，而非加息”。

　　报告补充称，很难区分短期收益率的波动有多少是源于政策收紧预期，又有多少是因地缘政治不确定性导致投资者要求更高的风险溢价。

　　报告指出，瑞银的期限结构模型显示，美联储和英国银行仍倾向于降息，且英国市场对政策宽松的预期更为强烈。

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