ChainCatcher 消息，据 The Block 报道，在中东停火带动的反弹行情消退后，比特币徘徊于 7.1 万美元附近，以太坊约报 2190 美元，整体加密市场同步走弱。分析指出，美伊谈判破裂及围绕霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势升级，使市场重新回到“油价上涨—通胀预期上升—风险偏好下降”的宏观交易逻辑。
机构认为，比特币在 7.4 万美元附近遭遇明显阻力，叠加原油重返 100 美元上方，资金风险偏好承压。不过，多数观点认为当前回调尚未演变为恐慌性抛售。数据显示，上周现货比特币 ETF 仍录得近 10 亿美元资金净流入，且强平规模显著低于一季度水平，表明市场对冲击的吸收能力有所增强。
结构上看，7 万至 8 万美元区间仍存在较强抛压，约 1350 万个地址处于浮亏状态，限制上行空间。同时，期货未平仓合约规模较 2025 年高点已下降逾 50%，显示此前过度杠杆已得到一定出清，市场结构趋于健康。比特币当前更像宏观资产而非独立行情，其走势仍高度依赖通胀与流动性环境。在美国通胀重新抬头、货币政策维持谨慎的背景下，比特币短期或维持震荡格局。
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