金吾财讯 | 中金公司研报指，伊朗局势以来，美A港三地盈利预期走向分化：美股上修，A股持平，港股下修。从内部结构看，三地市场上游板块盈利均上修但美股更大，A股尤其港股中下游板块盈利下调幅度更大。综合来看，美股能源板块更大幅度的上调和中下游板块更小幅度的下修是其整体盈利反而走高的关键。对比之下，港股科技与其他下游板块普遍且大幅的下修则拖累了整体盈利的下行。
从各类资产计入降息预期看，债券、黄金、铜依然悲观，权益市场对悲观情形的定价不充分（除前期已经跌幅较大的部分市场如恒科）。根据中金公司行业轮动打分模型，短期生物科技、有色金属、化工、建材、钢铁盈利估值和资金交易维度表现较好，可优先布局；银行、油气、煤炭等板块基本面强、资金交易打分偏低，可以持续关注等待时机，更适合作为中期底仓或左侧配置。中期维度，当伊朗局势逐步走向缓和，情绪得到修复，决定配置方向的仍将回归盈利前景。从目前的预期看，2026年三地市场中科技、周期和部分资源品预期盈利增速较高，部分消费板块承压，这与信用周期的走向一致。
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