【券商聚焦】交银国际:4月锂电排产稳步上行 “反内卷”推进助力行业供需关系持续改善

金吾财讯
Apr 14

金吾财讯 | 交银国际发布电池行业月报,3月中国内地动力电池装车量为56.5GWh,同比微降,环比增长114.9%;1季度,中国内地动力电池累计装车量124.9GWh,累计同比下降4.1%。3月中国动力和储能电池合计出口36.1GWh,同比增长57.1%。1季度,我国动力和储能电池累计出口84.1GWh,累计同比增长36.7%,占累计销量19.3%。多家锂电企业1季度业绩亮眼。其中亿纬锂能预告1季度归母净利润同比增长25%-35%,扣非归母净利润同比增长30%-40%。4月锂电产业链排产稳步上行,固态电池关注度回升。据鑫椤锂电数据,4月中国内地样本企业中电池排产达151.1GWh,环比+3.8%,带动中游材料环节走高:正极排产19.5万吨(环比+1.1%);负极17.6万吨(环比+6.7%);隔膜21.1亿平(环比+0.7%);电解液11.5万吨(环比+8.0%)。需求端来看,3月车市显著回暖奠定了增长基调,随着2季度新车型密集发布,叠加电池出口退税政策调整催生的阶段性“抢出口”效应,短期需求得到有力支撑。同时,中东地缘不确定因素有望进一步提振海外对能源安全的诉求及储能需求,而中资厂商正凭借磷酸铁锂(LFP)路线的成本优势持续扩大全球市占率。基于此,该机构维持对全年锂电池需求向好的判断。此外,近期清陶能源正式向港交所递交招股申请,其台州3.5GWh半固态电池产线已投产且订单饱和,行业景气度有望提升。

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