金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，3月金融数据总量回落、结构持续分化，直接融资补位特征明显，但居民端内生动能仍显不足。具体来看：社融与信贷增量同比双双回落，高基数效应构成重要扰动。结构上，企业债融资表现亮眼，低利率环境与科创债机制优化形成双重驱动，直接融资渠道持续扩张，贷款与企业债券合并观察或能更全面衡量实体经济获得的金融支持；财政靠前发力亦对基建投资形成一定托底。货币端，M1和M2增速双双回落，除基数压制外，跨境资金流入节奏放缓带来额外拖累，广义流动性边际支撑趋弱。该机构认为，当前主要隐忧或在居民端，信用扩张的主引擎仍依赖政府债与企业债发力，居民部门尚未形成有效接力，实体融资需求的全面回暖仍需供需两端政策协同持续发力。
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