东方证券：绿色氢氨醇率先在国际航运业领域放量国际航运业和化工业贡献需求增量

智通财经

Apr 15

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，替代节奏取决于绿色氢氨醇经济性和法规强度。绿色氢氨醇率先在国际航运业领域放量，2030年需求接近3000万吨。2035年，随着绿色氢氨醇成本进一步接近传统氨醇，其他行业的替代将呈现加速趋势。预计到2050年，高碳排放行业都将过渡到绿色氢氨醇为主的形态。

报告中称，政策明确支持绿色氢氨醇，五大核心场景存潜在替代需求。绿色燃料首次写入2026年政府工作报告，布局发展“绿色氢氨醇”和“推动绿氢产业链向绿色氨醇、SAF延伸”直接写“十五五”规划纲要。在政策引导和支持下，绿色氢氨醇将在电力难以替代的领域，发挥重大的作用，主要有航运业、钢铁行业、化工行业、重卡物流车辆以及电力行业。

展望未来，2050年绿色氢氨醇需求超过14亿吨，国际航运业和化工业是主要贡献。参考IMO净零框架，国际航运业2050年绿色氢氨醇需求高达5.3亿吨，其中绿色甲醇占比68%。甲醇重卡的绿色甲醇替代取决于经济性和排放法规趋严，预计2050年对绿色甲醇需求约1.3亿吨。钢铁行业低碳转型催生绿氢需求约2235万吨/年。传统氨醇化工低碳转型升级总替代规模高达5亿吨/年。煤电绿氨掺烧升级改造带动2.5亿吨/年绿氨需求增量。

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