金吾财讯 | 中金公司研报指出，短期支撑美元走强的因素大概率迎来逆转。地缘层面，美伊对话重启令局势恶化风险下降，能源转型推进也将削弱美国能源优势。政策层面，美联储或淡化油价冲击维持宽松，欧央行货币政策或更偏鹰，美欧政策分化将利空美元。资金层面，避险情绪回落之后，资金有望回流非现金与非美资产，难以继续支撑美元强势。
中长期来看，美元 “货币锚” 弱化趋势仍将主导市场，美元贬值方向未改。美国对外净负债持续累积，叠加政策不确定性与美元 “武器化” 风险，持续压制美元资产需求。尽管新任美联储主席沃什的缩表政策或有助修复美元信誉，但其落地受经济、市场与政治多重约束，叠加特朗普相关政策的负面影响，美元信誉难获实质改善。全球货币秩序持续重构，将推动美元维持长期贬值走势
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