ChainCatcher 消息，尽管比特币本周一度升至 7.63 万美元，但市场情绪依然低迷，恐慌与贪婪指数仍处于 21 的“极度恐惧”区间，显示价格与情绪出现明显背离。机构观点认为，本轮上涨更接近“估值修复”而非趋势反转。QCP Capital 称其为“缓解性反弹”，宏观层面的通胀、能源及政策压力尚未完全消退。
Glassnode 指出，比特币仍较关键阻力位“真实市场均值”约 7.81 万美元低约 5%，当前反弹深度有限。资金结构亦显分化。现货需求与 ETF 资金流有所回暖，但获利了结增加，机构参与仍偏谨慎，衍生品市场持续偏向下行对冲。交易所数据还显示，需求更多来自离岸及散户资金，而非美国机构主导。分析称，约 7.5 万美元已成为关键支撑/验证位。若后续买盘无法承接，价格或回落至 7 万至 7.1 万美元区间。
宏观方面，美股持续创新高、油价维持高位但未进一步飙升，使市场风险偏好回暖但仍存不确定性。市场关注焦点正转向美联储政策路径，整体环境仍对加密资产形成约束。综合来看，当前比特币虽维持反弹，但在阻力位附近震荡，市场基调依然谨慎，尚未形成一致性看涨趋势。
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