Netflix First-Quarter Net Profit Grew 83% Year-on-Year: Why Did It Once Dive 10% After Hours? Does Conservative Guidance Suggest a Netflix Growth Bottleneck?

TradingKey
3 hours ago

TradingKey - Netflix ( NFLX) announced its first-quarter earnings results for the period ended March 31, 2026, after the bell. During the period, net income was $5.283 billion (in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted), up 82.77% year-over-year; diluted earnings per share were $1.23, significantly higher than the $0.66 recorded in the prior-year period and the $0.76 expected.

During the period, total revenue reached $12.25 billion, surpassing market expectations of $12.17 billion. This represents a 16.19% increase from $10.543 billion in the same period last year.

First-quarter financial results exceeded market expectations.

In terms of revenue, Netflix attributed its better-than-expected growth to "subscriber growth, price increases, and advertising revenue growth."

Net income was even more impressive, far exceeding operating profit levels; this was primarily driven by a sharp rise in interest and other income, with the interest and other income line item recording a staggering $2.85 billion in the first quarter. It is believed that the source of these funds is Warner Bros. ( WBD) termination fee paid to Netflix.

It is reported that Netflix recently withdrew from the bidding war for Warner Bros., which was successfully acquired by Paramount Skydance ( PSKY) for as much as $110 billion. Under the agreement, Paramount Skydance committed to helping Warner pay the $2.8 billion "termination fee."

Stock price under significant pressure as guidance misses expectations

Regarding guidance, Netflix maintained its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting total revenue between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 12% to 14%. The operating margin for 2026 is expected to be 31.5%, up from 29.5% in the prior year.

However, it is worth noting that Netflix's second-quarter guidance was notably weak. The company expects second-quarter revenue of $12.57 billion, missing market expectations of $12.64 billion; the second-quarter guidance for diluted earnings per share (EPS) is only $0.78, significantly lower than the market consensus of $0.84. Netflix attributed the lackluster second-quarter outlook primarily to the timing of new content releases and the concentration of content cost amortization.

Netflix also announced that co-founder and Chairman Reed Hastings will step down from the Board of Directors in June, introducing uncertainty regarding management changes.

Following the news, Netflix's stock price came under significant pressure and plummeted during overnight trading, with the after-hours decline reaching as much as 10%. As of press time, the stock remains down over 9.5%, trading at $97.63.

Several key factors are weighing on the stock price. First, while first-quarter results were significantly stronger than market expectations, the revenue and EPS guidance for the second quarter fell well below consensus. Although Netflix attributed this to cost control measures, the full-year 2026 guidance was not revised upward, indicating that management remains cautious about the future outlook.

Second, Netflix recently decided to raise prices across the board in the U.S.: the monthly rate for the standard ad-free plan rose from $17.99 to $19.99, the premium plan increased from $24.99 to $26.99, and even the ad-supported plan was hiked from $7.99 to $8.99; additionally, the fee for extra account members was also raised by $1. While this move may boost revenue in the short term, it could lead to subscriber churn amid intensifying competition in the streaming market.

Does the investor sell-off of Netflix signal growth struggles for the company?

Netflix's first-quarter performance was not short of highlights: its advertising business remains a core monetization focus and continues to trend upward. Over 60% of new subscribers in the first quarter opted for Netflix's ad-supported plan. Furthermore, enhanced service capabilities have attracted many new advertisers, with the partner base now exceeding 4,000, up 70% year-over-year. The company maintains its $3 billion ad revenue forecast for this year, representing a doubling relative to 2025.

Additionally, cash flow was another highlight, with Q1 operating cash flow reaching $5.3 billion compared to $2.8 billion in the previous year; free cash flow (FCF) rose from $2.7 billion in the prior-year period to $5.1 billion. Netflix expects full-year 2026 FCF to reach $12.5 billion, a roughly 13% upward revision from the previous $11 billion estimate. On the balance sheet, the company ended the quarter with approximately $12.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, total debt of about $14.4 billion, and net debt of around $2.1 billion, keeping overall leverage manageable.

In summary, Netflix's current status is that despite first-quarter results significantly beating market expectations, net profit growth was largely attributable to 'termination fees' from Warner Bros.

Second-quarter guidance missed expectations due to content amortization costs, and full-year performance targets were not raised despite the Q1 beat. Netflix anticipates the amortization growth rate will slow to mid-to-high single digits in the second half of 2026 and expects to reach its full-year operating margin target of 31.5%.

The advertising business is currently showing aggressive momentum, with impressive results in both the consumer and business segments, and ad revenue is projected to double year-over-year. Strong cash flow has further enhanced the company's risk resilience.

Overall, the share price decline triggered by guidance missing expectations does not indicate that Netflix is facing a growth slowdown; rather, it is a market re-pricing of management's cautious outlook.

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