金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，一季度实际GDP增速和名义GDP增速分别回升0.5、1.0个百分点，经济总体实现“开门红”。但单月来看，3月经济数据在供需两端均有不同程度下滑，特别是内外需求边际上均有一定放缓。从生产侧来看，3月工业增加值顶住高基数压力实现较高增速，原因或在于PPI显著回升和出口延续韧性使工业企业生产意愿回升，服务业生产保持稳健。从需求侧来看，一季度固定资产投资在政策多管齐下的驱动下回正，基建投资贡献强动能。3月经济数据中偏差的是消费端，在去年同期高基数、部分区域以旧换新补贴使用进度较快等因素的影响下，3月社零增速不及预期和前值。
展望后续，美以伊冲突和油价上涨对我国经济的影响或将进一步显现。随着PPI同比已经实现转正，后续上游涨价向中下游的传导情况以及对企业盈利格局的影响尤为值得关注。美伊在巴基斯坦斡旋下达成双向停火协议，该机构认为尽管后续谈判过程仍将不断反复，但在现实约束下，伊朗局势的战略方向正在逐渐清晰。政策方面，如果美以伊冲突和油价上涨等负面冲击对国内经济的影响超预期，该机构认为逆周期政策有望加码，提示关注4月物价、工业、消费等经济数据的变化。
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