Has Harley-Davidson (HOG) Run Too Far After Its Recent 28% Monthly Surge

Simply Wall St.

Apr 17

Wondering if Harley-Davidson at around US$22.44 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what that price might really imply for you. The stock has moved sharply in the short term, with a...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

{"basename":"","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - Tiger Brokers","title":"Tiger Brokers | Global Stocks, Options & Futures Trading App","description":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","keywords":"tiger brokers,tiger trade,tiger brokers singapore,broker online,stock trading in singapore,share trading singapore,brokerage firm singapore,trading app,stock broker singapore,stock trading platforms,trading account","social":{"ogDescription":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.0a0bd8dc.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/news/2628527472"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2628527472\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2628527472?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/277444-main-header/1585186959654","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-04-17 17:10","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2628527472","market":"sg","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Has Harley-Davidson (HOG) Run Too Far After Its Recent 28% Monthly Surge","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>Wondering if Harley-Davidson at around US$22.44 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what that price might really imply for you. The stock has moved sharply in the short term, with a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-hog/harley-davidson/news/has-harley-davidson-hog-run-too-far-after-its-recent-28-mont\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has Harley-Davidson (HOG) Run Too Far After Its Recent 28% Monthly Surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas Harley-Davidson (HOG) Run Too Far After Its Recent 28% Monthly Surge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-17 17:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-hog/harley-davidson/news/has-harley-davidson-hog-run-too-far-after-its-recent-28-mont><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wondering if Harley-Davidson at around US$22.44 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what that price might really imply for you. The stock has moved sharply in the short term, with a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-hog/harley-davidson/news/has-harley-davidson-hog-run-too-far-after-its-recent-28-mont\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"HOG","symbol_name":"哈雷戴维森","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-hog/harley-davidson/news/has-harley-davidson-hog-run-too-far-after-its-recent-28-mont","article_id":"2628527472","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/277444-main-header/1585186959654"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nyse-hog/harley-davidson/news/has-harley-davidson-hog-run-too-far-after-its-recent-28-mont","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628527472","pubTimestamp":1776417032,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Wondering if Harley-Davidson at around US$22.44 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what that price might really imply for you.\nThe stock has moved sharply in the short term, with a 28.2% return over 30 days, compared with a 1% decline over 7 days and a 2.9% return over 1 year.\nRecent headlines have focused on Harley-Davidson's position in the US motorcycle market and ongoing attention on brand strength and demand trends. These updates help frame whether the recent share...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"HOG":"哈雷戴维森","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK4091":"摩托车制造商"},"translate_title":"哈雷戴维森(HOG)在最近每月飙升28%后是否走得太远了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"HOG":1.5,"DCF":1},"content_text":"Wondering if Harley-Davidson at around US$22.44 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what that price might really imply for you. The stock has moved sharply in the short term, with a 28.2% return over 30 days, compared with a 1% decline over 7 days and a 2.9% return over 1 year. Recent headlines have focused on Harley-Davidson's position in the US motorcycle market and ongoing attention on brand strength and demand trends. These updates help frame whether the recent share price moves reflect changing sentiment on its long term prospects or shorter term trading swings. Right now, Harley-Davidson scores 3 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks, as shown by its valuation score. Next, you will see how standard valuation methods line up, before finishing with a broader way to think about value that goes beyond just the headline metrics.  Find out why Harley-Davidson's 2.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Harley-Davidson Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s dollars, aiming to show what the business might be worth right now based purely on those projected cash flows. For Harley-Davidson, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $408 million. Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model that blends analyst forecasts with its own extrapolations. For example, projected Free Cash Flow in 2028 is $242.1 million, and the longer term path out to 2035 is based on a mix of analyst inputs for the earlier years and estimated trends for the later years. After discounting all those projected cash flows back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $16.25 per share. Compared with the recent share price around $22.44, the DCF output suggests Harley-Davidson trades at roughly a 38.1% premium to this cash flow based estimate, which screens as expensive on this model alone. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Harley-Davidson may be overvalued by 38.1%. Discover 58 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. HOG Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Harley-Davidson. Approach 2: Harley-Davidson Price vs Earnings P/E is a common way to value profitable companies because it links what you pay directly to the earnings they generate. In simple terms, a higher P/E usually reflects higher growth expectations or a perception of lower risk, while a lower P/E can point to lower expected growth or higher risk. Harley-Davidson currently trades on a P/E of 7.41x. That sits well below the Auto industry average P/E of 18.80x and the peer group average of 20.23x. On simple comparisons with the sector and peers, the shares screen as relatively lowly priced against earnings. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Harley-Davidson is 9.34x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risks. This is more tailored than a basic peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for the company’s own profile rather than assuming all Auto names deserve the same multiple. With the current P/E at 7.41x versus a Fair Ratio of 9.34x, Harley-Davidson screens as undervalued on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:HOG P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Harley-Davidson Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives let you turn your view of Harley-Davidson into a clear story behind the numbers by linking assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a Fair Value and a simple comparison with today’s price, all inside the Simply Wall St Community page. That Fair Value adjusts as new news or earnings land, and one investor might build a more optimistic story around a US$32.0 Fair Value while another takes a more cautious stance closer to US$12.0. This shows how different views on the same company can lead to very different decisions about whether the current price looks high or low. For Harley-Davidson, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Harley-Davidson Narratives: 🐂 Harley-Davidson Bull Case Fair Value: US$32.00 Implied discount to this Fair Value vs the recent US$22.44 share price: about 29.9%. Analyst revenue outlook used in this narrative: 6.1% annual decline.  Assumes Harley-Davidson can keep widening its rider base through community engagement, younger focused marketing and more affordable entry models, while still leaning on its premium brand. Builds in lower revenue, slimmer profit margins and fewer shares on issue, with the view that a higher future P/E of 13.6x could still be reasonable compared with the wider US Auto sector. Frames US$32.00 as the bullish end of analyst targets, and invites you to judge whether those revenue, earnings and P/E assumptions feel realistic for your own view of the business.  🐻 Harley-Davidson Bear Case Fair Value: US$22.18 Implied premium to this Fair Value vs the recent US$22.44 share price: about 1.2%. Analyst revenue outlook used in this narrative: 5.2% annual decline.  Emphasises weak demand signals, dealer concerns and a heavier tilt to big ticket models, with tariffs, slow EV adoption and macro pressures all weighing on earnings confidence. Uses an earnings path that trends down to US$133.6 million and a higher future P/E of 21.2x, which together point to a Fair Value close to where the shares recently traded. Suggests Harley-Davidson could be roughly fairly priced on these assumptions, so any decision rests on whether you think demand, margins and the P/E multiple could end up better or worse than this consensus style view.  If you want to see these stories in full and stress test the numbers against your own expectations, the Community Narratives on Simply Wall St are a useful next step, starting with See what the community is saying about Harley-Davidson. Do you think there's more to the story for Harley-Davidson? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:HOG 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Harley-Davidson might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}