【券商聚焦】中金国际上调淡水河谷(VALE)目标价至18.50美元但提示多重风险

金吾财讯

Apr 20

金吾财讯 | 中金国际发研报称，淡水河谷(VALE)第一季度铁矿石产量符合公司指引，铜产量超预期。预计第一季度备考EBITDA环比下降19%，收入环比下降16%至92.60亿美元。第一季度铜矿产销量实现同比双位数增长，铁矿石产销量分别环比下降23%和19%，主要受强降水和Serra Norte矿石供应减少影响。铜产量环比下降5%，但同比实现13%增长，镍产量环比增长7%，销量环比下降10%。

该行表示，尽管淡水河谷在铜和镍产量上表现强劲，但铁矿石产量受雨季影响较大，且中东冲突对生产成本造成不利影响。同时，矿价及运价波动、尾矿坝地质工程风险、宏观经济及关税挑战等多重风险因素仍需关注。

该行续指，考虑到中东冲突对生产成本的影响，下调2026及2027年净利润预测分别为23%及26%，至76.13亿及60.83亿美元。当前股价对应5.7倍2026年EV/EBITDA和10.0倍2026年P/E。尽管短期盈利下调，但中长期增量预期抵消了这一影响，该行维持跑赢行业评级，并基于DCF模型的目标价上调至18.50美元，对应6.1倍2026年EV/EBITDA和10.4倍2026年P/E，较当前股价有4%的上行空间。

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