The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to start another week of market uncertainty amid the fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire. Hopes the crucial waterway would be reopened have taken another hit as peace talks falter and cargo ships are attacked, but investors still have reason for hope.

After Friday's euphoria drove stock indexes to new highs when it was announced the strait was open, things look rather messier on Monday. Iran has reportedly fired on Indian-flagged ships and said it would block traffic while the U.S. blockades its ports. Meanwhile, American forces have seized an Iranian-flagged ship. Oil prices were up more than 5% from their lows at the end of last week early Monday.

But ultimately this still looks like a locking of horns ahead of discussions rather than a return to full-on conflict. While Iranian officials have not yet confirmed their participation in planned peace talks in Pakistan, the betting is they will come to the table -- odds on Polymarket of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May sit at about 62%. That should eventually unleash new stock market highs.

That's not to say no damage has been incurred from sustained higher energy prices. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller -- who has been an advocate of interest-rate cuts in recent months -- warned Friday that continued conflict in Iran could force the central bank to hold rates steady even in the face of a weakening labor market.

Investors will need to watch the U.S. March retail sales data, due Tuesday, for any signs higher energy prices have hit consumer spending. It will also be worth listening for any comments from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh about the inflation threat at his confirmation hearing with the Senate Banking Committee on the same day. Plus another full slate of earnings is due, headlined by Tesla on Wednesday.

Stock markets can't move on from the Strait of Hormuz yet, but so long as there isn't a total breakdown in peace talks, there's reason to be optimistic.

-- Adam Clark

Barron's Live: Join Barron's Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Associate Editor Al Root today at noon when they discuss the outlook for stocks, bonds, and gold with Keith Lerner, chief investment officer and chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services. They will also look at the industry sectors best-positioned to outperform. Sign up here.

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Uncertainty Returns Heading Into New Week as Deadline Looms

The S&P 500 enters a new week of trading after marking a fresh high amid a three-week rally despite the Iran war. Expect more volatility as President Donald Trump's cease-fire deadline nears, with a lack of clarity on whether Iran has agreed to attend the second round of talks to end the conflict starting today.

   -- Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency said Sunday it had rejected taking 
      part in the talks, citing "excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, 
      constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval 
      blockade." Both sides have accused the other of breaking the cease-fire. 
 
   -- The U.S. is sending Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, 
      and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, Pakistan, for the talks. As those 
      preparations were being made on Sunday, Trump renewed his threats on 
      Iran's civilian targets like bridges and power plants. 
 
   -- Iran's military reclaimed control of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, 
      less than a day after saying it was open, citing the U.S.'s refusal to 
      end its naval blockade. Trump said Iran attacked a French ship and a 
      freighter from the U.K., and the U.S. has seized an Iranian-flagged 
      tanker in the Gulf of Oman. 
 
   -- With the two-week cease-fire set to expire, Trump is willing to "escalate 
      to de-escalate" things with Iran to get a deal done, U.S. Ambassador to 
      the United Nations Mike Waltz told ABC's This Week, even boarding and 
      turning around Iranian ships as far east as the Pacific Ocean. 

What's Next: Trump promised there would be no more Mr. Nice Guy when it came to Iran agreeing to a deal. "That is the problem with trading a tape that is being written in real time by geopolitics rather than grounded in anything stable," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said.

-- Liz Moyer

Nexstar Will Appeal Ruling Against $6.2 Billion Tegna Merger

Nexstar Media Group plans to fight a federal judge's preliminary injunction blocking its already completed $6.2 billion merger with fellow local broadcast television operator Tegna. The judge blocked the deal Friday on antitrust grounds, and Nexstar is appealing to the Ninth Circuit.

   -- Nexstar said the transaction closed after receiving all required 
      regulatory approvals from the Federal Communications Commission and the 
      Justice Department. Tegna's website says it's now part of Nexstar, after 
      the deal closed in March. U.S. District Judge Troy Nunley's ruling 
      threatens one of the largest media deals in years. 
 
   -- The judge sided with DirecTV and the eight states that sued to stop the 
      deal, finding that the challengers will probably succeed in arguing the 
      merger would violate antitrust law by reducing competition in local 
      television markets. The ruling bars Nexstar from integrating with Tegna 
      while the antitrust case proceeds. 
 
   -- Their combined company would control hundreds of U.S. television stations 
      that broadcast to more than 50% of the national audience -- well above 
      the FCC's longstanding 39% ownership cap. DirecTV and the states argued 
      that would give Nexstar greater leverage in negotiations with pay-TV 
      distributors, raising prices for viewers. 
 
   -- The decision could be seen as a rebuke to federal regulators, who had 
      granted a waiver to exceed ownership limits. Nexstar has argued that the 
      merger would strengthen local stations and support investment in 
      journalism. 

What's Next: The court injunction could keep the deal in limbo for months as litigation unfolds and possibly throw a wet blanket on other transactions in the media. Nexstar will report first-quarter earnings results on May 7.

-- Evie Liu and Janet H. Cho

AST SpaceMobile Satellite Launch Fails. Blame Bezos' Blue Origin.

AST SpaceMobile has suffered a setback in its plan to put up a satellite for space-based broadband. An AST SpaceMobile satellite being carried by a rocket from Blue Origin -- Jeff Bezos' launch company -- was put into an incorrect position on Sunday and it will now have to be taken out of orbit.

   -- "While the satellite separated from the launch vehicle and powered on, 
      the altitude is too low to sustain operations with its onboard thruster 
      technology and will [be] de-orbited," an AST SpaceMobile spokesperson 
      said in an emailed statement to Barron's. De-orbiting a satellite 
      typically means allowing it to burn up in the atmosphere. 
 
   -- It's a blow for both AST SpaceMobile and Blue Origin as they look to 
      challenge Elon Musk's SpaceX. Blue Origin hopes to become a viable 
      alternative in the commercial launch market with reusable rockets, while 
      AST SpaceMobile is racing to put up a satellite constellation capable of 
      providing 5G-quality connectivity anywhere in the world, before SpaceX's 
      own Starlink Mobile initiative achieves the same goal. 
 
   -- Amazon.com is poised to join the direct-to-device competition from 2028 
      following its recently agreed acquisition of Globalstar. Amazon relies on 
      Blue Origin and other launch providers for its own satellite launches. 

What's Next: While AST SpaceMobile currently has six satellites in orbit, it is targeting approximately 45 orbital satellites by the end of 2026 to offer a commercial service in northern latitudes. SpaceX's Starlink Mobile is promising a similar service by the end of next year.

-- Adam Clark and Alex Kozul-Wright

Berkshire Hathaway Sells Stocks Formerly Managed by Todd Combs

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel decided to unload about $15 billion in stocks previously managed by Todd Combs, the investment manager and Geico CEO who ran an estimated 5% of Berkshire's equity portfolio of about $300 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported.

   -- Combs left in December for an investment role at JPMorgan Chase. 
      Berkshire doesn't disclose which portfolio stocks are run by which 
      manager. Combs and investment manager Ted Weschler, who remains at 
      Berkshire, had run a total of about 10%; Chairman Warren Buffett handled 
      the other 90%. 
 
   -- Abel, who succeeded Buffett this year, now oversees the portfolio. Stocks 
      Berkshire might have sold include Amazon.com, Capital One Financial, Visa, 
      Mastercard, and Kroger. Berkshire watchers have speculated Amazon was one 
      of Combs' stocks. 
 
   -- Other trimmed holdings in the quarter were Constellation Brands and Pool. 
      Internet domain company VeriSign also could be a Combs holding since he 
      was viewed as Berkshire's technology investment specialist. The Journal 
      reported that Berkshire doesn't plan to replace Combs with a new 
      investment manager. 
 
   -- Combs and Weschler probably managed some of Berkshire's smaller holdings 
      while Buffett ran the big, longstanding ones such as Apple, American 
      Express, and Coca-Cola. Berkshire sold investments run by Lou Simpson 
      after he left the company about 15 years ago. 

What's Next: Berkshire will disclose its overall equity sales and purchases as part of its 10-Q report for the first quarter expected on May 2. It and other big institutional investors will detail their individual equity holdings in a 13-F filing around May 15.

-- Andrew Bary and Janet H. Cho

This Building Products Distributor Is on an Acquisition Streak

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