金吾财讯 | 瑞银维持新兴市场股票乐观判断，上调2026年12月MSCI新兴市场指数目标至1680点。支撑因素包括新兴市场AI创新优势、亚洲企业治理优化及大宗商品价格上行。
该行预测，2026年新兴市场企业盈利增幅可达33%。短期能源供给扰动带来的盈利冲击相对有限，整体影响可控。
板块与区域层面走势分化。瑞银持续看好中国大陆科技产业，看好其大模型及 AI新品的突破潜力，认为短期行情走弱仅受情绪与盈利短期波动影响，长期价值未改。
韩国市场依托存储需求旺盛、DRAM涨价保持高景气，预计年内将贡献新兴市场近三分之二每股收益增量。印度股票评级遭下调，受油价敏感度上升拖累，经济与盈利增长预测同步降温。
巴西凭借扎实基本面、降息周期与大宗商品出口优势表现突出，能源涨价环境下资产配置价值凸显。
整体投资方向上，瑞银建议均衡布局新兴市场，聚焦AI赛道、政策红利、大宗商品上行及基本面改善相关标的，重点覆盖中国大陆科技、韩国、巴西等区域市场。
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