By Megan Leonhardt

Peace Proves Elusive. Last week provided a large dose of optimism that the U.S. could be entering the final stretch of its war with Iran. But the story changed over the weekend and today vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was back to a virtual standstill.

While peace talks seem to be moving forward, the latest developments sent oil higher and stocks lower.

The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.3%, snapping the index's longest wining streak since 1992. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell five points, down 0.01%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.2%.

Conversely, Brent crude oil was up 5.6% to around $95 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 6.9% to just under $90 a barrel.

A generally flat stock market suggests that investors are looking beyond the Middle East to this week's big events: March Retail sales, out Tuesday morning, followed by the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh. And lots of earnings.

The new retail sales report should give an indication of how higher gasoline prices have impacted consumer spending on other purchases.

Economists surveyed by FactSet expect to see an overall retail sales gain of 1.6% in March, a significant surge from the 0.6% monthly pace logged in February.

Despite higher prices at the pump last month, Bank of America finds that credit and debit card spending per household increased by 0.9% on the month, and 4.3% year over year, in March. An increase in spending, even amid higher gas prices, is likely due to larger tax refunds.

The IRS reports that the average amount refunded per filing was up 11.2% as of April 10, compared with the same point in last year's filing season.

After markets closed, Apple announced that Tim Cook would step down as CEO in September. Insider John Ternus, currently Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, has been tapped as the new CEO. The news should make for an exciting earnings conference call, which is set to take place on April 30.

The Hot Stock: Trade Desk +7.0% The Biggest Loser: NRG Energy -6.3%

Best Sector: Materials +0.6% Worst Sector: Communication services -1.4%

Warsh Hits Prime Time

President Trump's pick to run the Federal Reserve heads to Capitol Hill tomorrow for his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

Investors and Fed watchers will be carefully monitoring how Warsh responds to questions on Fed independence and the central bank's balance sheet, but few expect his comments to move markets tomorrow.

"Warsh's viewpoints on these topics are only of marginal importance in determining the course of actual policy over the next few years -- especially if those viewpoints are well outside of the FOMC consensus," write RBC rate strategists Izaac Brook and Blake Gwinn.

In written testimony circulated on Monday afternoon, Warsh said that he believed "monetary policy independence is essential." But his interpretation of independence was nuanced.

"I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials -- presidents, senators, or members of the House -- state their views on interest rates," Warsh wrote. "Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners."

Warsh's testimony also suggested that the Fed would operate with a more limited mandate under his supervision. Or as he put it, "the Fed must stay in its lane."

For Warsh, the confirmation process is a matter of when, not if. A former Fed official, Warsh enjoys widespread support from the economic community, Wall Street, and D.C. lawmakers.

The biggest roadblock to him taking the job starts within the Trump administration itself. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has vowed to block any Fed nominee until the Department of Justice's investigations into Powell conclude.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro launched a criminal investigation into Powell's handling of the renovations to the Fed's headquarters in D.C. A federal judge quashed her subpoenas, but Pirro has vowed to appeal the decision. She has until early May.

So while the Senate Banking Committee is going ahead with a confirmation hearing, a final vote could be delayed. Powell's term as chair expires on May 15, but his term as governor runs through January 2028.

Powell has said will stay on as chair "pro tempore" if Warsh isn't in place. He will also stay at the Fed, he says, until the DOJ investigation is complete.

Barron's will be covering tomorrow's hearing live. You can follow the latest updates here.

The Calendar

3M, Capital One Financial, Chubb, Danaher, D.R. Horton, Equifax, EQT, GE Aerospace, Genuine Parts, Halliburton, Interactive Brokers Group, Intuitive Surgical, MSCI, Northern Trust, Northrop Grumman, Quest Diagnostics, RTX, Synchrony Financial, Tractor Supply, United Airlines Holdings, UnitedHealth Group, and W.R. Berkley report quarterly results tomorrow.

The Census Bureau reports retail and food services sales for March. The consensus estimate calls for a 1.3% month-over-month increase, seven-tenths of a percentage point more than in February. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales are seen rising 0.2%, compared with 0.4% previously.

The National Association of Realtors reports its Pending Home Sales Index for March. The PHS, a leading indicator of housing activity, is expected to be flat month over month, after a 1.8% increase in February.

Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, is set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee. If Warsh isn't confirmed by the Senate before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends on May 15, Powell has said he would stay on as chair "pro tempore" until a new chair is confirmed.

What We're Reading Today

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   -- Florida Is Attracting a New Generation of Wealthy Americans. Here's How. 

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 20, 2026 19:55 ET (23:55 GMT)

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