StubHub's (STUB) investment in customer acquisition is expected to moderate in 2026, supporting guidance for an inflection to roughly 70% to 80% year-on-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization growth for the year, Morgan Stanley said in a Monday note.

As the company's marketing efforts moderate, StubHub can grow share and margins at a more gradual pace, supporting a three-year revenue and EBITDA compound annual growth rate of 7% and 13% from 2026 to 2029 as a base case, Morgan Stanley said.

The company now holds 45% of the North American resale market, Morgan Stanley said, adding that it continues to view the secondary market as competitive and assumes a more "cautious view of growth" beyond 2026, as several players could limit the company's margin growth and pressure take rates.

Morgan Stanley said that it saw meaningful upside potential to its and consensus estimates in 2026 driven by the FIFA World Cup and that the event implies about a 4% potential contribution to growth this year.

The bank initiated coverage on StubHub at equal-weight with a $8.25 price target.

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