综合油气股盘前多股扬升 英国石油(BP)涨1.75%、森科能源(SU)涨1.56%

金吾财讯
Apr 27

金吾财讯 | 受霍尔木兹海峡封锁事件反复变动影响,美股综合油气股今日(4月27日)盘前多股上扬,截止发稿,英国石油(BP)涨1.75%,森科能源(SU)涨1.56%,道达尔(TTE)涨1.47%,壳牌(SHEL)涨1.28%,雪佛龙(CVX)涨0.49%。消息面上,高盛新近研报指,受霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁影响,预计今年第四季度布伦特原油均价将升至90美元/桶(此前预期为80美元)。分析师指出,波斯湾原油产能受损,日产量减少1450万桶,导致4月全球原油库存以创纪录的每日1100万至1200万桶速度急剧消耗。考虑到前所未有的冲击规模,高盛将海湾原油出口正常化的预期从5月中旬推迟至6月底,并预计本季度全球原油日产量将出现960万桶的缺口,而去年同期为盈余。摩根士丹利也发布报告称,海峡封锁已导致海湾地区原油日出口量暴跌1420万桶。该行维持本季度布伦特原油110美元/桶的预期不变。摩根大通大宗商品策略师NatashaKaneva最新研报披露,估算3月可观测库存日均抽取4.0mbd,4月加速到7.1mbd,用库存硬扛缺口的力度在显著上升。该机构预计,石化原料相关的疲弱约占4月4.3mbd需求损失的55%;航煤占11%,主要对应中东停飞带来的需求蒸发,5月亚洲与欧洲航空活动收缩会让航煤进一步走弱。汽油这边,因对海湾供给依赖较小,价格涨幅迄今低于中间馏分油,但这种隔离可能撑不了多久:炼厂约束收紧、更广谱的成品油平衡被拉紧,再叠上美国夏季驾驶旺季的季节性需求,汽油迟早会被拖进同一张紧网。

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