金吾财讯 | I/OFund首席分析师BethKindig近日指出，尽管英伟达(NVDA)长期的20万亿美元估值目标依然成立，但其在2026年将面临严峻的近瞻压力。核心挑战在于，随着AI行业重心从“训练”向“推理”阶段转型，开发者对英伟达CUDA生态的绝对依赖正因开源框架的普及而逐渐松动，其技术护城河面临削弱。同时，英伟达下一代Rubin架构芯片若出现执行层面的交付延迟，将进一步放大竞争风险。
分析认为，虽然英伟达仍是AI领域的绝对领导者，但考虑到生态锁定能力的下降及竞争多元化，其在2026年的风险收益比（Risk-Reward）或将难以维持此前极具吸引力的超额回报优势。
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