贵金属板块表现强劲 灵宝黄金(03330)涨8.95% 机构指贵金属长期向好格局未改

金吾财讯
Apr 29

金吾财讯 | 贵金属板块表现强劲,灵宝黄金(03330)涨8.75%,江西铜业股份(00358)涨4.82%,紫金黄金国际(02259)涨3.02%,中国有色矿业(01258)涨2.51%,紫金矿业(02899)涨2.77%。

盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管认为,贵金属短期走弱主因原油涨价推升通胀预期,而非地缘局势。黄金本轮回调属于周期性调整,长期上行结构未变;白银受工业需求及不稳定投资资金影响,行情更脆弱、波动更大。油价突破百元关口、美元走强、高利率延续预期,共同压制无息贵金属资产,金价跌至三周低位。AI经济韧性强化美联储维持高利率预期,叠加财报与议息事件,进一步加大短期市场不确定性。短期贵金属走势紧跟能源价格,油价回落有望成为金价反弹关键契机。

原油与高通胀支撑美元强势,延后全球降息周期。地缘扰动仅影响短期波动,黄金长期支撑逻辑稳固,滞胀风险、债务扩张、央行购金及去美元化进程持续利好金价。黄金在4250美元附近有强技术支撑,趋势韧性充足;白银高度绑定工业需求,受经济周期拖累明显,资金进出频繁、波动风险更高。当前金银比值处于相对高位,白银估值偏高。整体贵金属仅为阶段性休整,黄金适合长期配置,白银更偏向短线交易,需警惕大幅波动风险。

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