Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】华泰证券维持中国财险(02328)“买入”评级 指承保表现优秀

金吾财讯
Apr 30

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发布研报指，中国财险(02328)一季度净利润同比下降23.7%至86.31亿元，主要受投资收益承压影响，但承保表现有所改善。公司2026年一季度综合成本率（COR）为94.2%，同比改善0.3个百分点，承保利润同比增长7.5%至71.54亿元，保费收入同比增长1.4%。考虑到承保表现优秀，维持“买入”评级，目标价20.70港元。

车险方面，一季度保费同比持平于717亿元，但费用率持续优化带动COR同比下降。公司车险保费增速领先市场，市场份额有所增长。研报预计2026年车险保险服务收入同比增长1%，COR为96%。

非车险方面，一季度保费收入约1,113亿元，同比增长2.4%，增速高于车险。意外伤害及健康险保费同比增长6.5%，责任险同比增长4.6%，企业财产险基本持平，农险同比下降4.3%。预计2026年非车险保险服务收入同比增长9%，COR为99%，有望实现承保盈利。

投资端短期承压，一季度总投资收益同比下降38.4%至46.0亿元，未年化总投资收益率为0.7%，较去年同期的1.2%下降50个基点，主要受二级权益市场波动影响。截至一季度末，净资产为2,935.94亿元，较年初增长2.8%。综合偿付能力充足率为238.0%，核心偿付能力充足率为215.7%，偿付能力保持充足。 

考虑到投资收益波动，华泰证券下调2026/2027/2028年EPS预测至人民币1.83/2.05/2.21元，维持基于DCF估值法的目标价20.70港元不变。

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