金吾财讯 | 浦银国际发布研报指，4月美联储会议继续暂停降息，维持政策利率不变，符合预期。但会议出现34年以来最大意见分歧，高达四票委员反对议息声明，其中理事米兰支持降息25个基点，另三位地方联储主席反对在声明中体现宽松倾向。鲍威尔会后发言态度中性略偏鹰，强调在油价和关税双重冲击下降息仍需等待，当前利率接近中性或略微偏高。浦银国际认为美联储降息将至少延迟至9月后。主席换届短期内对议息决议影响不大，但需关注新任主席沃什上任后的政策主张，其可能取消议息会议后新闻发布会。中期来看，若能源危机导致美国经济陷入滞胀或衰退，美联储决议将更偏向稳增长。全年维持两次各25个基点降息的基本预测，但滞胀风险和当前美联储态度意味着降息幅度有小于预期的下行风险。声明较3月有小幅修改：评估经济方面强调中东地区军事冲突影响，称“通胀水平处于高位，部分源于近期全球能源价格上涨”，并称中东局势加剧美国经济前景高度不确定性；劳动力市场表述增加“平均而言”；未提及购买国债等资产负债表变动。风险提示：降息过慢引起经济衰退；政策刺激成效不及预期；美伊和谈无果、油价飙升引发美国滞胀乃至全球经济衰退；其他地缘政治风险。
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